Thursday, July 11, 2013

iPhone is going to win

I went back to China for two weeks in June. I asked everyone I met what smart phone they're using if they have one. Almost all want iPhone. Apple enjoys unsurpassed brand power in China.

This article clearly demonstrates the impression I had.

On my return, the market was hit by Bernanke concerns. First Mr Obama indicated that Mr Bernanke is no longer welcome to stay at the Fed (just bad, very bad communication); then Mr B himself made it clear that he had second thoughts about the Fed's asset purchasing program. Market went haywire.

Along went AAPL. Analyst downgrades hit the stock one after another. So we got to pick up some more shares below $400.

The rumored multi-colored budget iPhone seems to make so much sense. It'll appeal not just to users in places like China, but also to youngsters throughout the developed worlds. Every high school kid aspires to have one, what better way to entice their parents to buy them one than the colorful lower-cost iPhone?

This one thing should jack up market share for Apple.

iWatch would be another winner. It'll displace a few gadgets out there.

Larger iPhone. The new iOS 7 factor. The huge R&D budget.

New iPad, iPad mini.

New Macs, MacBook.

iTV...... the smart chips that will be getting into all sorts of places and change our lives forever.

I don't know why the stock is selling at PE below 10. Is the company not making money, and more money?

Oh, maybe I do know. It's Fidelity Contrafund, stupid!

---------------------

This is a good take. I agree.

(7/23/2013)
FQ3 earnings out: 31.2 M iPhone sold versus 26 M expected. iPhone revenue increased 15% in the quarter! The iPhone franchise is alive and well. Average price is down as the demand for 4 and 4S were high.

Remember this is a quarter without new products.

And, surprisingly, iPhone is gaining market share in June.

Is iPhone the world's defining mobile device?




1 comment: