Friday, April 28, 2017

Q1 GDP looks weak, but no worries

The economy grew only 0.7% in Q1. Core PCE inflation was 2%. A sign of stagflation?

Not according to Calculated Risk.

First, the soft Q1 GDP data is part of a recent trend of weak first quarters, and was mostly due to weak PCE and inventory adjustment - no worries. It was pretty clear that PCE would be weak in Q1 (see two-month method). However investment was solid.
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/04/q1-gdp-investment.html#Qq2Cxipw7gGX89VW.99

Double-digit earnings growth has returned, after a period of earnings recession.

Rates to rise... residential investment robust...should invest in banks while they're still cheap.