Friday, December 3, 2010

Job news so bad that the market doesn't care

It was a lousy headline: the economy added only 39,000 jobs in November against the expectation of 150,000. Unemployement rate creeped up to 9.8% from 9.6%. You would think that the Dow should take a nose dive and gave up all gain from the two previous sessions. Instead all major indices held their grounds pretty well.

The BLS report stands in stark contrast to recent data from ADP (+93,000 jobs), and modest Challenger layoff announcements (+48,711).

The employment index from the ISM Non-manufacturing release today also showed a pick up in hiring.

So, perhaps the market is looking forward to upward revision in the BLS data.

Or, perhaps that the market takes the bad news as a piece of good news in the sense that the Fed now can use it to strengthen its bond-buying program announced in November. The next FOMC meeting is only 10 days away. The Fed's support was essential for the market's run from late August to early November.

If the headline had been a positive surprise, the market may actually get worried.

Gold runs up either way...

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