Thursday, December 2, 2010

The European debt crisis ...

Greece. Bailed out.
Now Ireland.

But the sovereign debt crises, and Euro crisis, are merely delayed. See Krugman's article "Eating the Irish." See also some other discussions by economists.

It's striking to see how the bond market and the sovereign CDS market have behaved this year.


(Data source: Atlanta Fed)

The Greek bond spread continues its rise after the bailout. Ireland's looks to widen further, even after today's decrease. The fundamental economic problem has not been solved.

Next in line is Portugal, but the elephant in the room is Spain, because of its size and its huge unemployement rate of 20%.

How would all these affect the US? Here is an interesting analysis.

This is one of the big risks that can derail the global recovery, and the advance of the stock market.

No comments:

Post a Comment