Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Very tricky time at the Fed

I like Tim Duy's recent summary:

Despite some hawkish talk, the Fed will find themselves in risk management mode at the March meeting. Some will not like it. There will remain a contingent that fears standing still risks excessive overshooting of the inflation target.

Fed to stay neutral/dovish and tread cautiously(3/7/2016).

On Yellen's New Pivot to Go Slow on Rate Hikes and Said it Firmly (4/1/2016).

Analysis of the Fed minutes. (4/6/2016)


Still too much slack, unemployment rate moving side way (5/23/2016). Market now looking for a rate hike in July. This hike may not do as much damage to global economy as the one in December, but will slow down recovery progress. Look at oil market for hints.


David Rosenberg calls a summer rate hike "reckless and unnecessary." (5/24/2016) Strong words coming from a former bear, but he gives very good arguments against the hot heads in the Fed, especially the regional heads.